MauiLifeStyleBlog

Hawaii

Empowered by a strong high-end market and few foreclosures, the Hawaii real estate market has not caught the national real estate recession. While Hawaiians see daily news reports of falling home prices on the mainland, they have defied gravity.

Home and condo sales have slowed slightly in Hawaii, but not enough to have a major effect on its markets. Housing Predictor forecasts that Hawaii will stay clear of a housing recession in 2008 and just may miss a down turn in its markets all together, at least for now.

The draw of the Island’s sunshine has propelled Hawaii luxury real estate sales ahead of 2006. Global interest has increased in Hawaii, despite few Japanese investors in the marketplace. However, that may change soon as Japan’s investment trust laws change in 2008 to provide new investment incentives for Japanese investors.

The regulatory changes of the J-REIT (Japanese real estate investment trust) will allow capital to purchase property in Hawaii and could provide a huge infusion of Japanese money into Hawaii, which has long been a major investment area for the Japanese.

International and U.S. east coast real estate buyers have compensated for the drop off in demand from the rest of the nation. In Honolulu the median prices are staying at about where they were a year ago, which represents Hawaii as the only state in the country to have a stable housing market.

The inventory of homes has also declined instead of increased in Hawaii, which is unparalleled else where in the nation.

Building is still abundant in Honolulu. As the nation’s second largest vacation home market behind Florida, Waikiki hasn’t seen as much development as now since the 1960s when the area was originally designed as a resort magnet. In Kapolei a new major residential development is underway. As a result of a healthy market place, few foreclosures, and the infusion from Japan Housing Predictor forecasts Honolulu to appreciate 6.8% for the year.

In Maui condo development is underway. Maui is becoming the state’s second most developed island and new construction is still on-going. Maui will see a healthy pace of home and condo sales on the way to forecast 5.6% appreciation.

On Kauai home sales have also slowed slightly, but with its more relaxed less urban setting Kauai still has healthy consistent growth. Condo development is limited to four stories on this remote more 1970's version of the islands, keeping the flavor of Hawaii rituals more intact.

Kauai is forecast to see another year of good home sales growth in 2008 on the way to 4.9% in appreciation for the year.

Source: HousingPredictor.com - end Feb 2008

The 2008
Top 25 Real Estate Market Forecast

An amazing dozen states real estate markets are represented on the 2008 Housing Predictor Top 25 Market list.

The Top 25 with the highest forecast appreciation have the greatest probability of reaching their forecast of the more than 250 local housing markets Housing Predictor forecasts. In 2007 Housing Predictor’s forecasts were 86% correct within a 1 to 2 percent margin.

Yakima, Washington in eastern Washington State won the #1 position with forecast appreciation of 7.1% after appreciating strongly in the past year. Yakima still has a fairly active market, despite mortgage woes.

However, Hawaii is the strongest single state in the nation for real estate sales, and Honolulu was selected for the second spot in the Top 25, followed by Salem, Oregon. Six states each placed 3 communities on the list.

Interestingly, the top markets for 2008 are scattered throughout all parts of the U.S. from the west to the east and into the southern states. No particular area was more dominate than another as more and more smaller communities based on population made the forecast. The forecast shows a strong trend that is developing in the U.S. More people are moving to smaller less urban cities seeking a better quality of life.

Rank	Real Estate Market	2008 Forecast
1.	Yakima, WA	7.1%
2.	Honolulu, HI	6.8%
3.	Salem, OR	6.5%
4.	Maui, HI	5.6%
5.	Bismarck, ND	5.6%
6.	Manhattan, NY	5.2%
7.	Sun Valley, ID	5.1%
8.	Biloxi, MS	5.1%
9.	Kauai, HI	4.9%
10.	Austin, TX	4.8%
11.	Grand Junction, CO	4.5%
12.	Fargo, ND	4.5%
13.	Mobile, AL	4.4%
14.	McAllen, TX	4.3%
15.	Idaho Falls, ID	4.2%
16.	Spokane, WA	4.2%
17.	Glen Falls,NY	4.0%
18.	Salt Lake City, UT	3.9%
19.	Grand Forks,ND	3.9%
20.	San Antonio, TX	3.9%
21.	Seattle, WA	3.8%
22.	Pascagoula, MS	3.8%
23.	Hattiesburg, MS	3.7%
24.	Albuquerque, NM	3.5%
25.	Kellogg, ID	3.5%

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Shame on me... I forgot to post the 2nd part of Did You Know...

The ethnic makeup of Maui County rally shows our diversity.  Caucasians make up 35% of the island's residents.  Asians (which include Chinese, Filipino, Japanese & Korean) make up 33% and Native Hawaiians make up only 18%.  Rounding off the rest are Latinos with 9 percent, African-Americans with 1% and Americian Indians make up 1% as well.  And finally, there is 3% of the population who don't know what they are but hey... that souldn't surprise anybody!.

Another fact that surprised me is the height of the West Maui Mountains.  Looking at them from down here in Kihei, they look almost as high as Haleakala.  Well guess what?  The highest point is 5,778', whereas the Haleakala is a big 10,025' high.

If somebody asks you how many people vacation or visit Maui in a single year, the figure is 2.5 million.  And they leave around $3.1 billion behind or about $1,300 for each visitor. This big invlux of visitors is no doubt partially due to Conde Nast Traveler magazine ranking Maui as the best island destination in the world for the 12th consecutive year!

With Warm Alohaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa